How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain the concept of odds percentages and how to use them to identify value in your bets. I’ll give a brief explanation here but the real meat is in the article itself. Here’s how:
Odds are the chances of an event occurring. deposit 50 bonus 30 Odds are expressed as a percentage (like 2:1) or a ratio (like 4:1). Bookmakers price odds according to how likely it is that they will be won. If you think that Team A will win the next match, you bet on Team A at 4:1. If you think that Team B will win the next match, you bet on Team B at 2:1. What you win depends on the percentage of your stake and the odds given.
Bookmakers also price goals, the chances of each team scoring goals, in order to encourage people to bet on the outcome of the match. If you think that Team A will score more than Team B, you bet on Team A at 1:1. If you think that Team B will score more than Team A, you bet on Team B at 2:1.
Odds can be converted into percentage (like in the case of soccer) or into a ratio (like in the case of tennis)
A few simple calculations will tell you the odds that bookmakers are giving you and the value of the bets that you are placing. You need to know the decimal odds or fractional odds (like in the case of soccer) or fractional odds (like in the case of tennis) used in the bookmaker’s calculations.
The most recent information on soccer bookmakers can be found at sportsbettingchamp.com
Why only Sweden and the UK to start using decimal odds?
Decimal odds were first used in the UK and Sweden in the early 1990s. While they are easy to work with, there are still some calculations involved to ensure that the returns are maximised. The calculation is simple in the case of football.
You need to place a stake on Home win/Draw/Draw/Lose. If you win, you stake the same amount again. If you draw, you double the stake again. If you lose, you stake the same amount again.
The problem with this system is that when you win, you stake the same amount again and again. This means that you need to have a large betting bank to withstand a losing streak.
Theimal odds
Theimal odds are also known as “European odds” and have a principle of using one number per line. They are expressed as:
1.25 (on some football matches, the decimal odds might be written as 1.25, 1.37, 1.25 1.10, etc, but the odds are horizontal and angle brackets again apply)
The idea is that if you bet with one bookmaker, you will be making a profit if your selection wins, and if it loses, you will break even. The odds are the same at every bookmaker.
This profit margin can be lost at any time, so it’s not unusual if you have a winning sequence of 3 or 4 win, you lose a bet at one bookmaker, and the bookmakers don’t sticky the next bet to your bet.
The Bookmaker’s profit
The profits of the bookmakers are relatively small. When you bet with one bookmaker, you will expect a small profit as your matched betting liability rises (as the odds fall). The large discrepancies between the bookmaker’s prices and the odds on a match result often result in a small loss as the odds are caught up with the “older” price.
However, if you have a consistent and proven system that can generate a profit, the profits can be massive. Many systems are based on a match history analysis – finding a repeatable strategy that has shown profit over a series of bets. Systems like this are generally finished products, but you are the ultimate jury.
Bookmaker profit
Although you are bound to bet at some bookmakers, the vast majority of online bookmakers do not offer odds comparison, and often the odds offered are identical or very nearly identical.
Online bookmakers generally operate behind a paywall, meaning that you can’t see the comparison odds offered for any given match. It’s these paywalls that often cause a problem, as anyone who wants to see the outcome of a match, doesn’t need to place a bet and most firms won’t place one.
However, there are some sites that offer odds comparison. For example Betfair, Betdaq and Sportingbet all offer the very same odds for most football matches.
